Australian Open Predictions

The first major sporting event of the year, the Australian Open Tennis Grand Slam at Melbourne Park, is about to start. Here's my attempt at crystal ball gazing.

The men's draw is by far the easier to predict, with four strong favourites for the title. They are world No. 1 Rafael Nadal, three time champion Roger Federer, defending champion Novak Djokovic, and current World No. 4 Andy Murray. Despite being World No. 1 Nadal must be considered, on paper, the least likely of the four to win. He is probably the weakest on hardcourts (his least favourite surface), and the only one yet to reach a hardcourt grand slam final (he has two semi-final appearances at Australia and one in the US to date)

Federer must always be considered a strong favourite at any of the Slams (perhaps excepting the French), and has a sterling record at Melbourne Park. He also has the added incentive of tying Pete Sampras' record for most Grand Slam singles titles were he to win. To win the title though, Federer will have to overcome his recent hoodoo against Andy Murray (though to be fair, Federer comprehensively beat him in last year's US Open final), and the psychological blow of last year's straight sets semifinal loss to Novak Djokovic. However, few will doubt that if Federer is fully on song, he will be the favourite in Melbourne.

Andy Murray was made the joint favourite to win in Australia by the bookies after his excellent early season form, raising the surprise and ire of Federer in the process. Federer does have a point - it seems a bit presumptuous to make a man who has never won a slam the favourite over a player who has won 13 of them, even if he has beaten Federer twice in a month. Nerves certainly got the better of him last year in New York and he folded in straight sets in his first Grand Slam final. Common wisdom has it that the first slam is the hardest to win - just ask Federer about that - but it remains to be seen whether Murray is seasoned enough, and has the nerves to win it all in Melbourne. Also against him is the heat. Murray's fitness levels have improved enormously over the past year, but the grueling conditions and close to forty degree heat definitely puts him at a disadvantage. If he fails to win his matches quickly in the early rounds, and gets stretched to a five setter or two, there are certainly valid questions as to how well his fitness can hold up.

Novak Djokovic must be considered a contender given he is the defending champion, but his recent form hasn't been the best. Still, the high bounce hardcourts of Australia does suit his game quite nicely, and the 'Djoker' should be a good contender for a quarter-final or probably a semi-final place at the least. If his game comes together, he can win it.

Wildcards: Jo-Wilfred Tsonga is a very dangerous player when he is fit, and he was absolutely tremendous in destroying Nadal in the semi-final last year, hitting 49 winners in the process. He had also dumped out Murray, Gasquet and Youzhny to reach the final. He was again plagued by injuries in 2008, and we can only hope that he has recovered his fitness and form in time for the tournament. Marat Safin, the mercurial Russian (finalist 2004, winner 2005), is always a threat, provided he comes out on court with his head screwed on right. His possible third round clash with Federer is certainly going to be intriguing. Tommy Haas is another old hand plagued by injuries in recent years. His hard hitting game (especially his strong forehand) is suited to hardcourts. He is a three time semifinalist in Australia, most recently in 2007 (he missed the 2008 tournament due to injury). He could well make a decent run.

To say that the women's draw is open ended would be a major understatement. World No. 1 Jelena Jankovic has never won a grand slam despite making the final of the US Open in 2008, World No. 2 Ana Ivanovic was a finalist in 2008 and has a strong chance, but in truth any of a dozen players including the Williams sisters, any of five Russians (Safina, Petrova, Kuznetsova, Zvonerava, Dementiava) not to mention other possibles like former champion Amelie Mauresmo. All this despite the absence of Maria Sharapova through injury, and the two top Belgian players (Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin) who retired the previous year.

Let's start with the Williams sister. Serena has an excellent record at Melbourne Park but her recent form has been patchy at best. Still, she has proven on more than one occasion that she is more than able to play her way into a tournament, including the Australian Open. She has to be considered a top contender. Venus, on the other hand hasn't had the best of runs down under, getting knocked out more often than not in the Quarter-finals or earlier. Her record, and a lack of matches in the latter part of 2008 will count against her, so she is a dark horse at best.

Now to the two Serbs. Jelena Jankovic managed to claim the top ranking in the world without having won a slam (though she made the final of the US Open losing to Maria Sharapova), and without winning that many tournaments in general. However, she has a good all-around game. However, she has also been plagued by niggling injuries, often in deeper stages of big tournaments, so she has to hope that her health holds up. Ana Ivanovic was a finalist last year, and must be seen as another real threat but she too is battling poor form. It all depends on whether Ivanovic can play her way into the tournament and gain momentum in the process, if she does, expect to see her in the semi-finals at least, and if things go well, she might well go all the way this time.

The upper tier of woman's tennis has been inundated by Russians and the Russian girls will pose a strong challenge even without their belle, Maria Sharapova, who is out injured. Among them is Dinara Safina, Marat's younger sister. Like her older brother, she has a big serve, and powerful groundstrokes. Unlike him, she seems to have her head screwed on right for the most part. Still there are questions whether she will be able to outmaneuver a quicker and more agile opponent on court.

Interestingly, the Russian with the best current form is Elena Dementieva. She's won her first two tournaments of the year and is in fantastic form. Her achilles heel has always been her serve, which is often as fragile as a champagne flute, especially when she is under pressure. Her consistent baseline play, both on the forehand and backhand side, will probably not be enough to overcome that weakness. Kusnetsova is an old hand at the grand slams by now, and has a consistent game, but she will have to play above herself to beat some of the higher ranked players. The same could be said, in many ways of Petrova.

So, it now comes a time when I have to stick my neck out. For the men's side, I predict a Rafael Nadal vs. Andy Murray showdown in the semifinals. Federer will extend his streak in grand slam semi-final appearances, though Djokovic might fall in an upset. It is a really tough call but I expect Rafael Nadal to cement his growing dominance of the men's game and claim the title after avenging his loss to Murray at the semifinals of the US Open. He might well face Roger Federer in the final, where he has the opportunity to extend his dominance over Federer once again.

For the women's draw, it is much too fluid and open to call, but Ivanovic, Jankovic and Serena Williams are the three favourites for me. I will go out on a limb and predict that Jankovic underlines her status as the top ranked women's player by claiming her first slam.

Addendum: My prediction for the Men's draw proved correct. It was indeed Nadal vs. Federer, and Nadal did triumph but what a classic, what a close match it was! He has clearly gotten into Federer's head and the Swiss superstar completely broke down at the prize presentation ceremony.