My Thoughts on Super Tuesday

After watching a few hours of CNN coverage of Super Tuesday, I decided to post my general impressions of the race for the Presidential nomination for both parties:

To begin with, it is clear to everyone that John McCain is the Republican front-runner. He said so himself, acknowledging that as much as he "enjoys being the under-dog and relishes come from behind victories" everyone, himself included would have to "get used to the idea that we are the front runners for the Republican nomination to be President". However, it is also abundantly clear that he does not have the support of the conservative core of the party, which hurt him back in 2000 against George Bush and continues to hurt him. He hasn't won a single Southern state (apart from Florida earlier) and trails in support from voters that define themselves as "conservative" or "attending church regularly". Crucially, a significant portion of his support came from independent voters. Many of his wins have also come in states which typically vote Democrat come November.

Does anyone else besides me think that Mike Huckabee has an uncanny resemblance to the actor Kevin Spacey both physically and in the way he speaks? Huckabee shares some of Spacey's charisma and the former Baptist pastor swept the South, winning Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Georgia, Tennessee and also West Virgina as well as running a very close second in a three way race for Missouri (winning almost all of the districts in the State's rural, bible belt South). That was very impressive considering his lack of funds and the expert opinion that Super Tuesday would end his Presidential bid. But his poor performance in California and anywhere outside the South is indicative of his lack of visibility and influence outside of the bible belt. Nobody is giving Huckabee any hope at winning the nomination, but he has cemented his status as a serious Vice-Presidential candidate.

Huckabee's success meant that Mitt Romney's attempts to portray himself as the choice of the conservative core has more or less fallen flat. Super Tuesday was disappointing for Romney and the continued presence of Huckabee in the race will be a major blow. Romney, despite his large war chest seems to be seriously losing momentum and it will be a struggle for him to mount a serious challenge to McCain given the gap that has opened up between them, his optimistic Super Tuesday speech notwithstanding.

The Democratic race has been unbelievably close, and now it couldn't be any closer. Clinton took a number of the key states, those with large numbers of delegates including her home state of New York, New Jersey, California and crucially Massachusetts. She also won in Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and of course Arkansas. Barack Obama however won a total of 13 states including Georgia, Illinois, Delaware, Alabama, Utah, North Dakota, Kansas, Connecticut, Minnesota, Colorado, Idaho, Alaska and a very close fought race in Missouri. New Mexico was too close to call. As it stood, Super Tuesday was balanced on a knife edge 540 to 539 pledged delegates to Clinton and Obama respectively.

There is little doubt in my mind that Obama is by far the more charistmatic candidate after seeing both of them speak. Some may accuse me of falling for the typical jingoism of "changing America" and his profoundly (un)original crowd rousing tactic of getting everyone to shout "yes we can". But Hilary's speech was nothing more than a stump speech, a repetition of the issues. I hadn't paid much attention to the nomination race up to know, but after Super Tuesday I can safely throw my support behind Obama.

My decision is twofold. Firstly, Obama has proven after Super Tuesday that he will be better able to contest the traditionally non-blue states and the swing states. He won in the South, the Midwest, the Rockies. Clinton's core support came from traditionally Blue states - California, New York, Mass. - which are likely to vote Democrat in Novemember whomever is chosen. The Democrats have to learn that they need a candidate that can win challenge in the midwest and also make a dent in the South. It is repeatedly harped upon fact that the last two Democratic occupants of the White House were Jimmy Carter (from Georgia) and Bill Clinton (from Arkansas).

Secondly, it is crucial in any Presidential bid, to win over the neutrals (or indeed to be able to sustain enough interest to get the neutrals out to the polling booths in the first place). Obama is by far the more charistmatic and personable individual, with a message that has the capacity to inspire (even if for all his talk of an inclusive campaign across age, gender and race the Latinos and Chinese and the elderly seem to favour Clinton by some margin). Clinton, on the other hand, is a far more divisive figure, seen as not only too liberal by many, but also tied to the establishment.

Given how finely balanced the nomination race is, here is my assessment of the 'way forward', so to speak. It will be almost immediately back to the campaign trail for both candidates with upcoming primaries in Washington, Louisiana and Nebraska (Feb 9); Maryland, Virginia, the District of Columbia (Feb 12). It is crucial that Obama does well in the so-called Potomac Primaries (Maryland, DC, and Virginia) where he is seen to have the edge over Clinton. He is already seen to have a large edge in Washington and Louisiana (the latter state having a large black population). The big prize is Texas and Ohio (March 4) which Clinton must win (she is seen to have an edge with the large Latino population in Texas and the working class population in Ohio). Obama must hope to cause an upset there but at the bare minimum run Clinton close (particularly given the large number of delegates that Texas holds). Wisconsin will be a tightly contested battleground which will give crucial momentum and bragging rights to the winner there.

The Democratic race could well go right down to the wire - even to the point of it having to be decided on Superdelegates at the convention. Clinton currently has the advantage in terms of the number of Superdelegates that have announced in her favour but if Obama does have the lead come convention time in terms of pledged delegates there will be immense pressure on the party elite to give him the nomination and a probably public outcry if that is not the case. For him to win more pledged delegates than Clinton, the upcoming primaries mentioned above are crucial, all the more so because the subsequent primaries in Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Indiana will favour Clinton (particularly due to the large number of blue collar workers in the latter two states).

One immediate danger is that a long drawn out candidate race could adversely affect the chances of whichever candidate emerges as the victor in their bid for the Presidency come November. Both Clinton and Obama will have to decide how much of their war chest to spend in the upcoming primaries and how much to withhold for a future race for the Presidency. The longer the nomination process drags on, the less time the eventual winner will have to consolidate his/her support in the party and to appeal to the independents and undecideds before the Presidential polls. All this will be exacerbated if the Republicans manage to rally behind a candidate early on.

How likely is this to happen? Almost nobody doubts that John McCain is likely to secure the nomination, it is just a question of when. And that depends on the determination of his opponents Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee not to pull out of the race and to continue fighting. It is likely that if either Romney or Huckabee were to pull out of the race, the other candidate would soon follow suit, leading to the anointment of McCain. Given the Super Tuesday results it is Romney who will have to thing long and hard about his continuned role in the primary race. He has already spent a massive amount of money, a large portion of it his own, and Super Tuesday must be seen as a fatal blow to his attempts to be the conservative candidate of the party. Huckabee on the other hand, succeeded against the odds and will have much less cause to pull out.